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"There are signs that some institutions are getting more serious in their long-term strategic and marketing planning processes. ."
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The Downsides:

In my previous article crunching times ahead I exposed my views on why I believe there is a difficult time for the Australian international higher education industry.

There is a lot of pressure out there due to steady numbers of commencing domestic students (up 0.1% in total with 1% growth in postgraduate and 0.5% in undergraduate courses in 2004 vs. 2003), a lower growth rate in international students total enrolments (6%) and a low increase in commencing international students (3%).

According to the analysis provided by AEI in their most recent newsletter, 'this rate of commencements may not be sufficient to maintain current levels of enrolments growth'.

On the top of that, the international competition to attract international students is dramatically increasing, the foreign ventures of Australian institutions do not seem to be financially successful, and the further concentration towards increasing enrolments from India and China continue to happen.

At the same time, there are questions on the 'business ethics' of some recruitment agents and funding issues.

The recent AEI/DEST figures - as well as recent media investigations - confirm these trends. I suppose that there is no need for further commentary on that.

The questions are how can the industry cope with the current environment and how it will face the future? I commented that there is a need to further discussions on an appropriate 'business model' for the Australian (international) education sector to face the future.

This model should arise from a discussion involving all industry players.

The Positives:

There are signs that some institutions are getting more serious in their long-term strategic and marketing planning processes. Consultants are busy helping institutions in developing their marketing strategies.

There is, in addition, a further recognition to understand that diversification in source countries and courses offered are the way to go. The recent AEI industry seminars confirmed that. Europe, Africa, North and South America and Middle East are arising as the next markets to work on, and there is interest in the government and institutions to work on these markets.

Another positive trend is that the growth of overseas enrolments by fields of study. Whilst Management and Commerce and Information Technology continues to dominate the scene, their growth rates in 2004 vs. 2003 (9.9.% and 6.6% respectively) are lower than in other fields of study such as Agriculture, Environment and Related Sciences (21.8%), Natural and Physical Sciences (14.3%) and Education (13.7%), contributing to an increasing diversity by field of study.

Corby's case and International Education

As everybody knows, businesses and industries are part of a macro environment. Their activities cannot be isolated from broad social, economic and political trends.

The Corby case exposed the prejudices that a wide cross-section of the Australian society has on foreign systems, cultures and values.

The Australian reaction to the verdict on this case has been extensively covered in the Asian and international media (see examples below). In sum, Australian was pictured as an increasingly xenophobic and racist society.

Moreover, the recent attack on the Indonesian embassy in Jakarta with a biological agent will damage Australia's reputation in Asia as a tolerant society, despite the condemnation of the attack by the Australian government.

A very sensible industry to racial and discriminatory issues, such as education, is likely to be affected in its core, particularly in the South East Asian markets. News has widespread around the world. Just a simple Google search confirms that.

We now must ask ourselves what would be your reaction if you were, let's say, an Indonesian, Malay or Singaporean student looking to study in Australia after reading these articles and the recent breaking news on the attack to the Indonesian Embassy? Would you come to Australia? Just food for thought...

Further Reading

Domestic Agenda

  • Fewer locals find a place: (The Australian 1/6)
  • Monash loses more on S Africa campus (The Australian 1/6)
  • Expansion into Asia gathers pace (The Australian 1/6)
  • Foreign student growth slows (The Age 30/5)

Student Data

  • AEI Releases April International Student Enrolment Data (Source AEI website 31/5)
  • Publications - Higher Education Statistics Collections (Source DEST website 1/6)

International Education Competition

  • Malaysian Education Moving Towards Globalisation (Bermana.com 30/5)
  • Create Harvards of the East (Malaysia Kini 30/5)
  • Russian Fair to offer on-the-spot admission (Deccan Herald India 22/5)
  • Warmed by friendly Canadians, low fees and quality courses (The Star 22/5)
  • China overseas students' number hits record high (Star Online 22/5)
  • Shapelle Corby's case: Non-Australian Perspectives
  • Outrage at Corby verdict sparks racist concerns (Stuff NZ 30/5)
  • Australia Bali drug outrage sparks racist concerns (Reuters 30/5)
  • The Corby controversy (New Straits Times 30/5)

16 June 2005

Marcelo Follari 
International Education Market Research 
www.marcelofollari.com
P: 61 2 6255 0426 
M: 0438 982 680 
E: marcelo@marcelofollari.com  
ABN: 86 079 691 845

Marcelo's Archives

Crunching Times Ahead

Losers and Winners Nowadays, the industry is evaluating the possibilities for expansion into the same emerging markets that IDP left behind (Europe, the Americas and Africa), in the face of increased competition in the Asian region.

Postcards from South America From Australia and the rest of the Asia Pacific region, there will be an increasing need to understand how to do business in South America, and to analyse different market segments.
March 2005

Market research and international education
Consequently, it will not be enough to analyse past trends. In a rapidly changing market environment, to analyse historical data may not be enough.
February 2005

2005: The Challenges Ahead The 'happy years' of growth are over and they will seriously impact on the university business. What now?
January 2005 

Blame it on the dollar?
Are the main factors affecting IDP's performance solely environmental, such as the Aussie Dollar or the increasing competition?
December 2004


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